At its annual Forecast Conference on January 20, 2026, CREB® released its outlook for Calgary’s housing market this year. The headline: another balanced year, with clear differences between types of home.
CREB® 2026 forecast: change in benchmark price by type
The forecast for the City of Calgary
- Sales: 22,200, close to the 22,752 recorded in 2025 in the report’s summary table.
- Prices: total residential benchmark price growth of −0.94%.
- Detached: 11,200 sales and prices up 0.11%. Semi-detached: 2,100 sales and +0.78%.
- Row: 3,700 sales and −1.90%. Apartment: 5,200 sales and −3.50%.
Why CREB expects this
According to CREB’s Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, lower migration, stable employment and stable interest rates should keep demand from changing much, while about 26,000 units under construction will be completed over the next few years. Much of that is apartment-style rental and ownership housing, which is expected to keep pressure on apartment and row prices. Detached and semi-detached homes are more balanced, supporting relative price stability.
CREB names two risks. On the upside, the memorandum of understanding between the federal and provincial governments on energy-sector regulation could lift confidence and investment. On the downside, the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) could add uncertainty, together with lower energy prices.
Our take: a forecast is a starting point, not a promise. We will compare it with CREB’s monthly figures through the year.
From boom to balance
Calgary total residential benchmark price growth
The forecast caps a sharp turn. According to the report’s summary table, total prices rose 5.56% in 2023 and 7.47% in 2024, then fell 2.38% in 2025. For 2026, CREB expects a smaller decline of 0.94%, with detached prices up 0.11%, semi-detached up 0.78%, row down 1.90% and apartments down 3.50%. Apartment sales are forecast at 5,200, after 5,427 in 2025.
The economy behind the forecast
Calgary’s employment grew an average of four per cent in 2025, most of it in health care and social assistance, while accommodation and food services lost the most jobs. CREB expects employment growth to slow to 0.4% in 2026, with job losses in public administration and manufacturing, and unemployment to stay elevated at 7.4%, compared with 7.5% in 2025. Citing ATB Economics, it expects Alberta’s GDP growth to ease to 2.1% from 2.3%, and oil (WTI) to average US$65 a barrel, down from US$77. Alberta’s population growth is forecast to slow to 1.5% from 2.5%.
On interest rates, the report says the Bank of Canada is likely done cutting, and it cites RBC Economics forecasting an overnight rate of 2.25% in every quarter of 2026.
The risks, in CREB’s words
If energy investment comes sooner than expected, job growth and migration into the province could be stronger, supporting a quicker absorption of housing supply and stronger prices. If oil prices dip further than expected, energy investment could slow. CREB also stresses that slower migration is not the same as the years before the pandemic, when more people left Alberta for other provinces than moved here.
Supply: still elevated
New home starts in the Calgary CMA reached 26,439 by November 2025, already above the 2024 total of 24,369. About 26,000 units were under construction, 45% of them rental. CREB expects starts to ease in 2026 but says the additional rental supply will keep vacancy rates elevated through the year.
What it means for you
- Condo buyers: the forecast points to another year of choice and soft prices.
- Detached sellers: expect stable prices, not big gains. Pricing right from the start matters.
- Investors: plan for elevated vacancy and competition from new rentals.
- Everyone: CREB’s upside risk is stronger energy investment; the downside is trade uncertainty and lower oil prices. We will compare the forecast with each monthly report.
