On June 23, 2025, CREB® released its spring 2025 Calgary and region housing market update, revising the forecast it published in January.
What changed
- Sales have eased more than expected as economic uncertainty weighs on confidence. They are now closer to long-term trends but above the 2015–2019 lows.
- Record new home starts, mostly higher-density rentals, have helped double resale inventory from 2024 levels.
- Apartment prices are now expected to fall 2% in 2025, and row prices 1%.
- Detached prices are expected to stay relatively stable, as gains where supply is limited offset declines where new homes compete.
The context
CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie said there is “much concern over a market correction,” but Calgary is moving from a sellers’ market to one that is “more balanced and, in some cases, favouring buyers.” More supply is easing prices, though “not enough to offset the multiple years of double-digit growth.”
Population growth and a resilient job market are helping prevent a more severe outcome. Clarity on energy and environmental policy will matter beyond 2025.
Compared with the January forecast
In January, CREB expected sales to ease only slightly in 2025, to 26,850 from 26,985 in 2024. The spring update says heightened uncertainty through the spring will lead to a larger decline in annual sales than expected. Sales are not expected to fall to the lows of 2015 to 2020, but to levels more consistent with long-term trends. The January forecast also expected price growth of 2.71% for the year; the spring update now expects prices for apartments and row homes to decline and detached prices to stay relatively stable.
Share of new Calgary homes intended for rental, January–May 2025, %
Where the new supply is coming from
The report, which uses data available as of June 7, 2025, says new home starts continue to rise after the record high starts of last year. From January to May 2025, Calgary had 10,104 starts, 42% of them intended for rental, and 21,105 homes under construction, 41% of them rental. Apartments make up most of the activity: 6,202 apartment starts, two-thirds of them rental, compared with 2,044 detached starts. CREB says this will keep supporting higher rental vacancies and lower asking rents, and will weigh on resale condo and row prices, especially as international migration eases from record levels.
Calgary housing starts by type, January–May 2025
Detached homes by district
For detached homes, citywide supply was just over two months, low enough to support some price growth but at a slower pace than last year. Conditions are more balanced at the upper end and remain relatively tight for homes priced below $700,000. The added choice is having the biggest effect in the North East, for homes above $700,000, and in the North, for homes above $800,000, where competition from new homes and narrow price gaps between new and resale homes are limiting gains.
The economic backdrop
The report lists inflation at 1.7% in April, the Bank of Canada rate at 2.75% and an RBC forecast for the rate to fall to 2.25% by the end of the year. CREB says Alberta is still expected to lead the country in growth this year, but outcomes depend on avoiding significant job losses and on the direction of energy and environmental policy.
What it means for buyers and sellers
Buyers of condos and townhomes can expect more choice and room to negotiate for the rest of 2025, especially in newer communities where resale homes compete with new projects. Detached buyers should expect firmer prices in districts with limited supply. Sellers of apartments and row homes should price against nearby new construction, while detached sellers below $700,000 are still in a relatively strong position.
Local angle
CREB notes that rising supply is mostly in the newer communities of the city, which affects resale prices in nearby areas most.
