On July 19, 2024, CREB® released its Q2 2024 housing market report for Calgary and the region. It shows the first clear signs of a shift toward balance.
Calgary benchmark price growth by type, first half of 2024
Key findings
- New listings rose year over year for the fourth straight quarter, mostly in the upper price ranges, as high prices and rates encouraged sellers.
- The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell below 80% for the first time since Q1 2023. The Q2 ratio was 75% with one month of supply, still a sellers’ market.
- Q2 sales fell 3% but stayed 29% above long-term trends. First-half sales were nearly 6% higher than last year.
- Prices are up 10% this year: row 19%, detached and semi-detached 13%.
The outlook
“Slowing migration levels and supply gains in the resale and new home markets should start to support more balanced conditions,” said Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. CREB expects price growth to slow in the second half of 2024, mostly for higher-priced homes, while the most affordable homes keep rising.
What it means: the market is turning, but from the top down. Sellers of upper-end homes may need sharper pricing this fall.
The quarter month by month
The monthly releases behind the report show how the quarter unfolded. April had 2,881 sales on 3,491 new listings, an 83% ratio. May had 3,092 sales and a jump in new listings to 4,333, which pushed the ratio down to 71%. In June, sales slowed to 2,738, the ratio was 72%, and months of supply rose to 1.4. Over the same three months, the total benchmark price went from $603,700 to $605,300 and then $608,000, a much slower climb than in the first quarter, when it rose from $585,000 in February to $597,600 in March alone.
Why migration matters
“The unexpected surge in migration over the past two years has contributed to the demand growth and supply challenges experienced in the Calgary market,” Lurie said. She added that “we still have to work through the pent-up demand,” but slowing migration and more supply from both resale and new homes should start to take some of the pressure off prices. CREB expects new construction, including rental buildings, to help both the rental and ownership markets become better supplied.
Who is affected first
CREB was clear that the shift will not be even. Much of the new supply is expected in higher-priced homes, which should slow their price growth. At the same time, tight conditions for the most affordable homes will keep pushing their prices up. That fits what buyers have seen this spring: sales fell mainly in the lower price ranges because there were few homes to buy, while sales of homes above $700,000 rose.
What it means for buyers and sellers
For buyers of upper-end homes, the second half of 2024 may bring more choice and less pressure to bid over asking. For entry-level buyers, the report offers less relief: condos, row homes and lower-priced detached homes are still in short supply. Sellers of higher-priced homes should watch competing listings closely and price with the current market rather than spring results. Sellers of lower-priced homes are still likely to see strong demand. Investors should keep an eye on the new rental supply CREB expects, which could change rents and vacancy in some areas over the next year.
The full report, the Q2 2024 Calgary and Region Quarterly Update, is available from CREB and includes district and regional details.
It is worth remembering how unusual the starting point is. Even after the shift, Q2 sales were 29% above long-term trends, and one month of supply is still far below the level associated with a balanced market. The change is in direction, not yet in conditions.
