On January 21, 2025, CREB® released its 2025 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report, prepared by Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
The main calls
- Sales: over 26,000, more than 20% above long-term trends and broadly stable.
- Prices: growth slowing to about 3% for the year, with differences by segment.
- Market conditions: a move toward balance as supply improves.
What drives it
Lower lending rates, better supply and continued population and job growth support demand. Slower migration, more competition from new construction and economic uncertainty are expected to moderate resale activity. Lurie said rental rate adjustments and supply improvements will affect different segments in different ways.
The risks
Lurie warned that significant economic risks, “such as potential tariffs,” could affect activity in 2025.
What it means
After three years of strong sellers’ markets, 2025 is expected to give buyers more time and choice. Sellers of condos and townhomes, where new supply is greatest, should expect more competition.
Calgary residential sales, 2022–2025 forecast
Compared with 2024
The report’s summary table shows Calgary had 26,985 sales in 2024 and forecasts 26,850 for 2025, almost unchanged. Total benchmark price growth is expected to slow from 7.43% in 2024 to 2.71%. Annual average months of supply rose from 1.35 in 2023 to 1.59 in 2024, still well below the roughly three months CREB associates with a balanced market.
By property type
CREB expects detached sales to rise from 12,415 to 12,600, supported by lower lending rates, better supply and continued, though slower, migration from other provinces, with prices up 2.9%. Apartment sales are forecast to fall from 7,568 to 7,300, as easing rents, driven by more completions and slower international migration, affect the condo market; apartment prices are expected to rise only 1.8%. Semi-detached prices are forecast to rise 3.1% and row prices 3.4%.
Forecast price growth in 2025 by type, %
The risks
The report says the primary risk is tariffs imposed by Canada’s largest trading partner. If broad 25% tariffs are imposed on all exports, Alberta’s economy could enter a recession, lowering housing demand at a time when supply is increasing. If the energy sector is exempt or tariffs are short-lived, Alberta could see stronger job growth, more migration from other provinces and stronger sales. A federal election and a possible shift in energy policy are other risks.
What it means for buyers
Lower-priced resale homes are expected to see stronger price growth because of steady demand and limited supply. Higher-priced resale homes in districts where more new supply is being added may see slower growth, so buyers in the upper ranges should have more room to negotiate.
What it means for sellers
Condo sellers face the most competition, from new buildings and easing rents. Sellers of lower-priced detached homes should still see steady demand.
Practical takeaways
Treat the forecast as a baseline rather than a promise: it was based on information available as of December 31, 2024. Watch trade news and CREB’s monthly figures through the spring, and compare your segment with the citywide forecast.
The economic backdrop
The report cites ATB Economics forecasts of 2.5% growth for Alberta’s economy in 2025, unchanged from 2024, with oil at $70 US per barrel, down from $77. Beyond energy, growth is expected to be supported by investments in alternative energy, carbon capture and storage, food manufacturing and the construction of new data centres. On the upside, CREB says lower lending rates combined with stable economic conditions could support stronger-than-expected sales and slow the shift to balanced conditions.
CREB also notes that economic uncertainty could dampen housing activity particularly in the first quarter, and that prolonged uncertainty, even without broad tariffs, could weaken consumer confidence and delay housing decisions.
