Most of 2023 has been about a lack of listings. CREB®’s September report, released on October 3, shows the first broad sign that sellers are coming back, in the city and the region.
Sales-to-new-listings ratio, September 2023
Where listings improved
- Calgary: the overall sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 76% and inventory stopped falling. Apartment new listings were the highest ever for a September.
- Semi-detached: the ratio dropped below 70% for the first time since September 2022, and prices paused after ten monthly gains.
- Row: the ratio fell to 84%, from a 90% average since April.
- Airdrie: 204 new listings and 144 sales, a 70% ratio, the first time since 2020.
- Okotoks: 69 new listings and 52 sales, a 75% ratio, the lowest since August 2022.
- Cochrane: months of supply rose above two months for the first time since February.
Keep it in perspective
Inventory is still very low. Calgary’s is over 24% below last year, Airdrie’s is among the lowest since 2005, and Okotoks had only 70 homes for sale, among the lowest monthly levels in over 20 years.
What it means: buyers are getting a little more choice and time this fall, but it is still a sellers’ market. See current Okotoks listings.
Why the ratio matters
The sales-to-new-listings ratio compares how many homes sold with how many came onto the market in the same month. When it stays above about 80% to 90%, inventory shrinks and prices are pushed up. In August, Calgary’s ratio was 87%, Airdrie’s was 99%, and row homes and apartments were at 94% and 98%. In September, the ratios fell across the board. That is why inventory stopped declining in the city and in Airdrie and Okotoks.
What changed in each segment
Semi-detached homes saw a boost in new listings relative to sales, which pushed the ratio below 70%. Inventory rose, though the 295 units available were still the lowest for September since 2005. The benchmark eased slightly to $621,300 after ten monthly gains, mainly because of the West and North West, where supply rose above last month and last year.
For row homes, sales pulled back more than new listings. The ratio of 84% compares with an average of 90% since April, and inventory stopped declining. Apartment new listings were the highest ever for a September, which helped produce record sales and a modest gain in inventory.
Detached homes are the exception. The ratio stayed relatively high at 76%, and inventory remained at record lows. Some supply improvement appeared above $700,000, but homes below that level still had less than one month of supply.
The towns
In Airdrie, the ratio fell from 99% in August to 70% in September, which allowed a modest gain in inventory. In Okotoks, the ratio was the lowest since August 2022 and inventory stopped falling. In Cochrane, both sales and new listings eased, and months of supply rose above two months for the first time since February.
Is this a turning point?
Not yet. CREB says that relative to sales, supply has not changed enough to cause a significant shift in the balance between supply and demand. One month of better listings is welcome, but inventory remains far below normal, and fall and winter usually bring fewer new listings.
Practical takeaways
- Buyers: semi-detached and row homes are where choice improved most; it may be easier to negotiate on conditions.
- Sellers: more competition from other listings means you should check what else is for sale nearby before setting a price.
- Everyone: watch the October ratio; another month in the 70s would confirm the change.
Sales stayed strong even as listings rose: September’s 2,441 sales were a record for the month, so the new supply is being met by real demand rather than by a drop in buyers.
