Calgary’s 2023 housing market: strong migration, low supply, record prices

CREB® released its 2023 year-end figures on January 2, 2024. Calgary had 27,416 sales, fewer than 2022’s peak but far above long-term trends and pre-pandemic activity.

Calgary: 2023 annual benchmark price growth by type (rounded)

The year in brief

• Inventory averaged 44% below the 10-year average.
• Months of supply stayed well below two months for most of the year for homes under $1,000,000.
• Average annual benchmark price growth slowed from 12% in 2022 to nearly 6% in 2023, still strong compared to many Canadian markets.
• “Thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options,” said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

By type

• Detached: sales fell nearly 20% for lack of lower-priced supply. Prices rose nearly 8%, most in the most affordable districts.
• Semi-detached: sales down 10%, prices up 7%, from 6% in the City Centre to over 16% in the East.
• Row: sales down over 11%, prices up over 13%, with over 20% in the North East and East.
• Apartment: the only type with more sales, a record 7,884. Prices rose over 13% and passed the 2014 high, reaching a record $321,400 in December.

What it means: 2023 showed that migration can outweigh high interest rates in Calgary. Supply, not demand, set the pace.

A year of two stories

Lurie summed up 2023 in two sentences: higher lending rates dampened housing demand, but strong migration kept demand relatively strong, especially for affordable homes. At the same time, supply was low compared with demand all year, so prices grew faster than expected. Sales of 27,416 were about 8% below 2022’s record of 29,672, but still far above long-term trends and pre-pandemic levels. The biggest change was the shift towards more affordable apartment condos.

Compared with 2022

In 2022, the market rose sharply in the spring, then cooled as rates climbed, and the total benchmark ended that year at $518,800. In 2023, prices rose almost every month, from $520,900 in January to over $570,000 from August onwards, setting new records. Average annual benchmark growth slowed from 12% in 2022 to nearly 6% in 2023, which CREB notes is still strong compared with some markets in the country.

Detached: the biggest drop in sales

Detached sales fell nearly 20%, the largest decline of any type. Sales improved for homes above $700,000, but limited choice in lower price ranges pushed buyers to other housing types. Inventory stayed near record lows despite some recent gains in higher-priced listings. On average, the detached benchmark rose nearly 8% in 2023, slower than in 2022, with the biggest gains in the most affordable districts.

Semi-detached and row

Semi-detached sales grew year over year from May, but not enough to offset the early-year declines, leaving 2023 down 10%. The decline was in homes under $500,000, where supply was limited, while sales of higher-priced homes improved. The annual price gain of 7% was slower than 2022’s 12%. Row sales fell over 11% despite rising sales above $400,000. New listings improved in the second half of the year, but only in higher price ranges, so conditions were more balanced at the top and remained a sellers’ market at the bottom. Row prices rose over 13%, from 11% in the City Centre to over 20% in the North East and East.

Apartments: the year of the condo

Apartments were the only type with more sales, and the 7,884 sales beat 2022’s record of 6,221. A higher starting level of inventory and more new listings made that possible, but conditions tightened during the year. Apartment prices finally recovered their 2014 high and moved above it, reaching a record $321,400 in December. The annual gain of over 13% was faster than in 2022.