Population growth has been the biggest driver of Calgary’s housing demand in recent years. The Government of Alberta’s report on first-quarter 2026 estimates, published June 17, 2026, shows that engine slowing.
Population growth, April 2025 to April 2026
The numbers
- Alberta added 8,926 residents between January and March 2026, reaching 5,057,077 on April 1.
- Over 12 months the population grew by 46,999, or 0.94%, well above the national rate of −0.45%, but Alberta’s slowest annual growth since 2022.
- Alberta still had the highest first-quarter growth among the provinces, at 0.18%.
- Net international migration was −648, the lowest since the third quarter of 2020, as more non-permanent residents left under federal targets.
- Net interprovincial migration, at about 6,000, remained the largest contributor, and natural increase added 3,568 people.
Why it matters for housing
Slower growth helps explain why sales have cooled and why rental vacancy has risen. Interprovincial migration is holding up better than international arrivals. In our experience, families moving from other provinces often buy detached and semi-detached homes, while many newcomers from abroad rent first. That matches what we see in Calgary: firm prices for detached homes, weaker prices for condos.
Alberta grew while Canada shrank
Population growth, April 1, 2025 to April 1, 2026
Canada’s population fell by 0.45% over the 12 months to April 1, to 41,417,056. Ontario (−0.94%), British Columbia (−0.93%) and Quebec (−0.28%) all declined. The Government of Alberta says the moderation across the country mainly reflects the federal Immigration Levels Plan, which reduced overall immigration targets, and the federal goal of bringing temporary residents down to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.
Temporary residents: the main drag
Canada recorded a net outflow of nearly 118,000 non-permanent residents in the quarter, led by Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Alberta’s non-permanent resident population was just over 261,000 on April 1, down about 10,000 in three months, and made up 5.2% of the population. The steepest declines were among work and study permit holders, partly offset by new asylum claimants. Overall, migration still accounted for about three in five of Alberta’s new residents, thanks to people moving from other provinces.
Asylum claimants made up 13% of Alberta’s non-permanent residents on April 1, up from 7% on the same date in 2022. Statistics Canada notes that preliminary estimates may not fully capture permit extensions, so these numbers can be revised.
Interprovincial moves: still positive, but smaller
Among the four largest provinces, only Alberta and British Columbia gained people from the rest of Canada in the first quarter. It was the fifteenth consecutive quarter in which Alberta led the country in net interprovincial gains. At about 6,000 net interprovincial migrants, however, the gain was only about half of the most recent peak in the first quarter of 2024. Calgary has been the main destination for many of these newcomers, so a smaller inflow means less pressure on resale homes and rentals than during the peak years.
What it means for Calgary’s housing market
- Rentals: temporary residents are mostly renters. Fewer of them, at the same time as many new rental buildings open, explains much of the rise in vacancy and the incentives landlords now offer.
- Condos: investor demand for condos depends on rental demand. Until migration picks up, expect condo prices to stay under pressure.
- Detached homes: interprovincial arrivals continue, and CREB reported that Calgary’s detached benchmark rose from $724,000 in January to $747,800 in May while apartment prices stayed below January levels.
- Timing: population data comes out quarterly and is often revised. Treat a single quarter as a signal, not a trend. The next update, for the second quarter, will show whether the slowdown in Alberta’s growth continued into the spring.
