Alberta posts Canada’s fastest population growth and record interprovincial gains

Statistics Canada reported on September 27, 2023 that Alberta had the fastest population growth of all provinces and territories in the 12 months to July 1, 2023, at 4.0%.

Population growth, July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023

The numbers

• Alberta gained 56,245 more people from other provinces than it lost. That is Alberta’s highest annual net interprovincial gain and the highest for any province or territory since comparable data began in 1971/1972.
• International migration also added strongly to Alberta’s growth.
• Canada’s population was 40,097,761 on July 1, 2023, up 1,158,705 people or 2.9% in a year.
• Ontario and British Columbia each grew 3.0%.

Why it matters for Calgary housing

This is the demand behind the record sales and record-low inventory CREB® has reported all year. Many newcomers rent first, which tightens the rental market, and buyers from Ontario and B.C. often bring equity from more expensive markets.

What it means: as long as people keep arriving faster than homes are built, prices and rents in Calgary will stay under upward pressure.

A record for Canada too

Canada’s 2.9% growth was the highest rate for a 12-month period since 1957, when the population grew 3.3% during the Hungarian refugee crisis and the height of the baby boom. In absolute numbers, the increase of 1,158,705 people was more than twice the 1957 increase. Close to 98% of the growth came from net international migration: 468,817 immigrants and an increase of 697,701 non-permanent residents. Only 2% came from births exceeding deaths.

An estimated 2,198,679 non-permanent residents lived in Canada on July 1, 2023, up 46% in a year, the largest increase since comparable data began in 1971/1972. Most of the change came from more work and study permits.

Why Alberta led

Alberta’s growth came from two sources. International migration was strong, as it was across the country, but Alberta also had a record net gain of 56,245 people from other provinces. That is the highest annual net interprovincial gain ever recorded for any province or territory since comparable data began. Ontario and British Columbia grew 3.0% each. The three Maritime provinces also grew quickly: Prince Edward Island 3.9%, Nova Scotia 3.2% and New Brunswick 3.1%.

The link to Calgary’s housing market

In its Q2 2023 report, released on August 16, CREB said migrants from Ontario and British Columbia are likely behind some of the strength in higher-priced homes, because Calgary’s relative affordability makes them less sensitive to higher lending rates. In August, the city had record sales for the month, with 2,729 sales and only 3,254 homes for sale, compared with the roughly 6,000 normally available. CREB said tight rental markets are also pushing many renters to buy apartments, where sales so far this year reached a record 5,582.

How the other provinces compare

Growth was strong almost everywhere. Seven provinces grew at rates never seen since comparable data began: Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Manitoba grew 2.9% and Saskatchewan 2.6%. Quebec reached a record 2.3% but still had the second-lowest growth among provinces, and Newfoundland and Labrador was lowest at 1.3%. Births are not driving the increase: fertility fell to a record low of 1.33 children per woman in 2022, down from 1.44 in 2021. Alberta stands out because it is the only province that added so many people from the rest of Canada on top of international arrivals, and that happened while interest rates were rising.

What comes next

Statistics Canada calls these estimates preliminary and will update them. It will release estimates by age and gender as of July 1, 2023 on February 21, 2024.